NASCAR at Charlotte Coca-Cola 600 expert predictions: Why Martin Truex Jr. and Chris Buescher are overdue for wins
The NASCAR Cup Series continues this Memorial Weekend with the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
NASCAR is coming off a wild week. The All-Star Race may not be a points race, but emotions were still high this past Sunday, culminating in a physical altercation between Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Kyle Busch. (Don’t worry, we’ll get the expert perspective on that below.) Then on Tuesday, three new names were elected to the NASCAR Hall of Fame.
Needless to say, our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, have been working overtime this week. But they still took time to sit down and answer our burning questions about the upcoming race on Sunday. The race is set for 6 p.m. ET on FOX.
1a. We would be remiss if we didn’t start with The Punch. We saw a punch last year — not much happened after between Noah Gragson and Ross Chastain. Will there be any fallout between Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (or Sr.!) and Kyle Busch?
Jeff: Stenhouse told SiriusXM on Wednesday he’s been in contact with Busch’s team owner, Richard Childress, and doesn’t plan to continue the feud further. Busch was already in the wrong by wrecking Stenhouse in the first place, so he’ll likely consider getting punched in the face as the end of it. That said, all it would take is one more mistake by either of them to trigger the others’ anger all over again, so it depends on how cleanly they race each other for the next few weeks before we can consider this done.
Jordan: It feels like this is a one-and-done. Busch made a mistake, causing Stenhouse to react, and based on Stenhouse’s comments, he’s moving forward. So, barring another run-in between them, Busch vs. Stenhouse will not be NASCAR’s next great rivalry.
1b. It seems like that fight escalated a little too quickly from their initial calm demeanors. Was there any brewing tension before that? Were they due? Was it, as once so eloquently asked in A Bronx Tale, metaphorically really over a parking space?
Jeff: Busch has taken numerous verbal jabs at Stenhouse over the years, including once publicly calling him “Wrecky Spinhouse” in a response to a kid’s question about which driver causes the most crashes. Also, because Stenhouse was stuck in the infield at a track with no exit tunnel, he had been stewing on the wreck for almost two hours beforehand. So he had plenty of time to make up his mind about punching Busch in the face.
Jordan: Stenhouse had a right to be upset over Busch intentionally crashing over something that shouldn’t have been an issue. Add in the fact that Stenhouse couldn’t escape the track — thereby allowing him to stew for 90-plus minutes — and the fact that he has been the subject of Busch’s potshots over the years, this situation was a powder keg.
2. Let’s talk about Kyle Larson. He’s running the famous “Double” this weekend, racing the Indy 500 and then jetting over to Charlotte for this race. How do you think this will affect his run at Charlotte?
Jeff: Honestly, knowing Larson, it probably won’t. It wouldn’t even be that surprising for him to show up and somehow win that race. The only problem is the weather, which is currently a giant unknown. Let’s say the Indy 500 gets rain-delayed or has rain in the middle of it. Does Larson leave the 500 and fly to Charlotte for NASCAR? Could he possibly skip the NASCAR race or be late for it? You might not want to actually bet on Larson in either event, at least with any parlay, until you know for sure he’s going to race. Sportsbooks would likely void tickets if he wasn’t racing but don’t risk getting your money tied up.
Jordan: Larson running a 500-mile race before the 600 should not negatively impact him at all. As other drivers have demonstrated, doing the Double and producing good results is doable. In 2001, Tony Stewart finished sixth at Indy, then flew to Charlotte where he finished third. Don’t be shocked if Larson’s results are close to this, if not better.
3. When we talked about Charlotte last year, Jordan said, “It’s one thing to be fast at the 600; it’s another to survive until the finish.” How does that inform the analysis of this race? Has anyone shown themselves to be supremely smart and cautious among the drivers?
Jeff: It’s a lot of the usual suspects — veterans like Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Busch — who know how to take care of their equipment and be there at the end of the longest race. Truex is currently the active Charlotte wins leader with three, followed by Keselowski with two. But it’s also a race where some other drivers not necessarily considered “cautious,” like Tyler Reddick, can shine. Reddick actually has the best average finish at Charlotte (8.4) and has been in the top 15 every time in his first five career starts there.
Jordan: Being overly aggressive will bite you in the 600, as often we’ll see drivers forget just how long this race actually is. And while it’s much easier said than done, and very much a cliché, this really is a race where patience is everything with constant ebbs and flows throughout the night.
4. Which leads us to … Who do you like to win this week? And do you have an upset pick?
Jeff: Anyone see how fast Chris Buescher has been lately? I’m done overlooking this guy, along with RFK Racing’s newfound speed surge. What’s that you say? Buescher has never had a top-five finish? Don’t care. The guy has fast cars right now, is a talented dude and is going to win a race soon. Perhaps it will just happen to be at Charlotte.
Jordan: It’s going to be the usual suspects because that’s how these intermediate-track races tend to go. This means drivers from Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing and, yes, RFK Racing. Pick someone from this grouping and you should feel good about your chances. But as for the actual pick: Let’s go with Truex, who’s oh-so-good here and overdue for a win.
5. Chandler Smith is the current favorite to win the Xfinity title this year. A quick bit of research on his Wikipedia page reveals he was racing at (does a little math) age 11? Is he now a 21-year-old wunderkind who just got in with JGR and is on a fast track to stardom? Should we be (dare I ask) investing in his cards??
Jeff: Smith will probably end up in the Cup at some point, so investing in his cards might not be the worst idea. Is he a future Cup champ? It’s too early to say, really. But he does show some great speed at times and seems to keep improving, which are good signs considering how young he still is. He’s already almost matched his entire top-five total from last year, and it’s only one-third of the way through the season.
Jordan: Smith is considered a rising star, and he’ll be racing in the Cup before too long. One thing he needs to improve on is his consistency; there will be weeks where he’s a fixture up front, then other weeks where the results just aren’t there. But the speed is there and so too are the signs that he’s coming into his own. He’s definitely a driver to watch.
6. NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Fast Pasta has five top-10 finishes. Is this a sign of good things to come? He’s down to 150-to-1 odds to win the Xfinity title!
Jeff: Anthony Alfredo continues to overperform for an underfunded, small team. There’s certainly no chance he can win the Xfinity Series title, so those aren’t even good odds to take a flier on. And he would openly admit that, too. But his realistic assessment of his team’s equipment, along with his better-than-expected results, are a great combination that helps his cause. If he was getting these same finishes in a Joe Gibbs Racing car, he’d be considered underperforming or a disappointment. Instead, he’s getting the best out of his cars and bringing them home to the types of finishes that can get him a better-funded ride in future seasons.
